Best Super Bowl Prop Bets

Super Bowl 55 prop bets – Over 2.5 players to attempt a pass This one is a fairly cut and dry prop asking you to bet on whether or not a trick play will be attempted in the game.

The Westgate SuperBook and William Hill’s sportsbook on Thursday released their long lists of Super Bowl prop bets, which in Las Vegas has become something of a cherished Super Bowl bye week tradition.

Westgate’s prop book has grown to such heft that it contains a table of contents, with bets that are both straightforward (the point spread, the total) and wildly esoteric (which will be more: the number of Stanley Cup playoff wins by the Colorado Avalanche or Super Bowl points by Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker). If you can’t find a bet worth making, you probably aren’t looking hard enough. (For the most basic bet, take the Buccaneers and the points.)

We combed through the lists to find Super Bowl prop bets worth your consideration, with their picks below in bold. Note: The listed odds were taken from the prop sheets handed out by the books Thursday and may fluctuate as we get closer to kickoff.

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For the uninitiated, negative odds denote the favorite (minus-110 means you would wager $110 to win $100), while positive odds denote the underdog (plus-110 means you would wager $100 to win $110).

The goal of this guide to the best Super Bowl bets is to provide you with the information you need to place the right wager when the big game arrives. Not only will do showcase which Super Bowl bets are the best, we also advise you on which Super Bowl betting markets to avoid.
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Will there be a two-point conversion attempt? (Westgate)

Yes +130

No -150

Though this prop didn’t hit in last year’s game, a team has gone for two in eight of the past 11 Super Bowls. And even though neither team went for two all that much in the regular season — both tried only twice, with the Chiefs converting both attempts and the Bucs failing each time — the final-game desperation makes this plus-money bet one worth looking at. Tampa Bay also went for two in the second quarter of its first-round game against Washington, failing to convert.

— Matt Bonesteel

Will there be a missed extra point? (William Hill)

Yes +250

No -300

Since the distance on extra points was pushed back in 2015, NFL kickers have hit 6,875 of 7,328 extra-point attempts for a success rate of 93.8 percent. That has improved slightly in the postseason, with kickers successful on 286 of 302 tries (94.7 percent). Tampa Bay kicker Ryan Succop and his Kansas City counterpart, Harrison Butker, have lagged a bit with rates of 92 and 90 percent, which makes the “yes” side enticing.

If we were to assume each kicker could get three chances in this game, the average number of touchdowns each team has scored this season, including the playoffs, that would imply there is a 56 percent chance both kickers are perfect on extra-point attempts during Super Bowl LV. That, in turn, equates to a +125 money line for the “yes,” lower than what is being offered.

— Neil Greenberg

The Chiefs and Buccaneers can both score, but bet the under in the Super Bowl

Will either team score in the first five minutes? (WH)

Yes -110

No -110

According to data from TruMedia, the Chiefs and Buccaneers combined to score 25 times on 81 drives (14 touchdowns and 11 field goals) in the first five minutes of games during the regular season and playoffs. That rate (31 percent) implies a money line of +220 for the positive and -220 for the negative, so “no” has value.

— Neil Greenberg

Will either team score in the final 3½ minutes? (Westgate)

Yes -170

No +250

This has become one of the more reliable props in recent Super Bowl history — the heavy juice on “yes” reflects that — because the games have been close: The last true blowout took place seven years ago in Super Bowl XLVIII, when the Seahawks scored a 43-8 win over the Broncos. The six Super Bowls since have been decided by an average of 8.8 points, and each of those games featured a score in the final 3½ minutes. (And last year there were two.) This prop has hit in 22 of the past 27 Super Bowls, and with just a 3½-point spread, another close game could be at hand this year.

— Matt Bonesteel

What will happen first? (WH)

Bucs score +105

Bucs punt -125

Tampa Bay scored before it punted in 10 of 19 games, including four of its last five heading into the Super Bowl. Kansas City allowed a score before a punt in 10 of 18 games, including its last three. At least one team has scored on its opening drive in 10 of the past 14 Super Bowls, and the Chiefs gave up a field goal on the 49ers’ opening drive last year.

— Matt Bonesteel

Yards of longest accepted penalty (WH)

Under 19.5 yards -110

Over 19.5 yards -110

This one is predicated on the assumption that it only will hit if there’s a defensive pass interference penalty on a long pass play, and neither team has any particularly striking deep threat. Among the pass-catchers in this game, Tampa Bay’s Scotty Miller is tops in average depth of target at 16 yards per target (ninth in the NFL during the regular season), and Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill is next at 12.9 (tied for 30th). Combine that with Tom Brady’s aging arm (20.6 percent of his passes were considered bad throws this season, fourth worst in the league), the Chiefs’ quick-strike offense (Patrick Mahomes ranked just 13th in intended air yards per attempt) and the fact that the Bucs were flagged for DPI only eight times, and the under is worth a look.

— Matt Bonesteel

Which will be higher? (WH)

Alex Ovechkin total shots on goal +100

Tyrann Mathieu total tackles (solo plus assists) -120

The Washington Capitals face the Philadelphia Flyers on Super Bowl Sunday and the Great Eight is averaging a career-low 3.3 shots per game this season. The Flyers are one of the worst teams at suppressing shots at even strength this year, allowing 34 shots per 60 minutes at even strength, and Philadelphia also surrenders the 10th-highest rate of shots on the penalty kill, playing into one of Ovechkin’s strengths, but this still seems like the losing side. Mathieu averaged four tackles per game during the regular season and has 13 tackles in two playoff games. He has missed only four tackles all season.

— Neil Greenberg

First offensive play of the game (WH)

Rush -150

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Pass +130

Tampa Bay and Kansas City ran the ball often on their first plays of the game. The Chiefs ran the ball 13 of 18 times, and the Bucs handed it off 11 of 19 times. That’s a run rate of 65 percent on their initial first and 10, which implies a money line of -185, making the -150 being offered decent value.

— Neil Greenberg

Take the Buccaneers and the points against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs

Total sacks by the Buccaneers’ defense (WH)

Over 2 +120

Under 2 -140

Tampa Bay generated the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL during the regular season (27 percent), with the sixth-highest sack rate after adjusting for strength of schedule. Shaquil Barrett led all edge rushers with 76 pressures (sacks, hits and hurries), and the linebacker was credited with the third-highest pressure total (26) at his position per Pro Football Focus.

The Bucs have registered seven sacks in three playoff matchups, including five against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC championship game.

— Neil Greenberg

Will Patrick Mahomes throw an interception? (WH)

Yes +100

No -120

Mahomes was one of the most accurate and disciplined passers of 2020. According to Sports Info Solutions, he had an “on-target” rate of 71 percent (10th best), and he avoided tossing the ball into tight coverage (11 percent, the third-lowest rate behind Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers). That combination led to him leading the league in interception rate (six over 588 attempts, 1 percent) during the regular season. Mahomes also didn’t get picked off by Tampa Bay when they met in the regular season, and he hasn’t thrown an interception during this year’s playoff run, either.

— Neil Greenberg

Will there be a successful fourth-down conversion? (WH)

Yes -360

No +300

Since Mahomes became Kansas City’s starting quarterback in 2018, the Chiefs have converted a fourth-down opportunity in 49 percent of his games. That jumps to 71 percent in the playoffs. Kansas City has also converted a fourth down in three straight games and in four of its past five started by Mahomes. Tampa Bay converted a fourth down in eight regular season games in 2020 and one in each of its past two playoff games.

— Neil Greenberg

Longest reception by Tyreek Hill (Westgate)

Over 27½ yards -110

Under 27½ yards -110

A dozen of Hill’s 87 catches went for 28 yards or more during the regular season, and he added two more during the playoff run. He’s also the only player with three receptions of 28 or more yards against Tampa Bay’s defense this year. Hill caught 13 of 15 targets for 269 yards and three touchdowns in that Nov. 29 game, his longest a 75-yard score in the first quarter.

— Neil Greenberg

First-half points scored by the Chiefs (WH)

Over 15 points -120

Under 15 points +100

The Chiefs’ offense has scored at least 16 first-half points in eight games; that includes the regular season game against Tampa Bay and both of Kansas City’s playoff games. However, only six other teams managed 16 or more first-half points against the Bucs’ defense in 2020, and Tampa Bay has also allowed just 30 first-half points in three playoff games. (In a less exotic wager, you should also take the under for the game total.)

— Neil Greenberg

Will the game go to overtime? (WH)

Yes +575

No -850

Since 2002, 291 of 4,864 regular season games have gone to overtime, about 6 percent. In the playoffs, that has been a little more frequent at 11 percent, with the first three rounds carrying most of the freight. There has been just one overtime Super Bowl game in the past 18 seasons.

— Neil Greenberg

There’s nothing like getting your Super Bowl wagering Sunday off to profitable start, and a surefire way to do just that is hitting on the game’s first touchdown scorer.

Among the myriad of proposition bets, it remains one of the most popular. So with a winning beginning in mind, here are five candidates to tally the first TD Sunday in Tampa.

We start with two worthwhile favorites, throw in two midrange value plays and finish with a longer shot worth taking.

Best bets for the first Super Bowl touchdown

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Tyreek Hill (+600)

This next-level speed demon tied for third in the league with 17 total touchdowns during the regular season, including a career-high-matching three in the Kansas City Chiefs’ 27-24 Week 12 win in Tampa.

In 50 regular and postseason games since the start of the 2018 season (i.e. the Patrick Mahomes starting era), Hill has found his way into the end zone a whopping 41 times. This includes four rushing scores and a punt-return TD, on 305 total touches, for an average of a TD every 7.4 touches.

Somehow, Hill hasn’t scored on 20 total offensive touches so far this postseason, but expect that to end Sunday. And it could come early – first-TD-of-the-game early.

Leonard Fournette (+1200)

This ballyhooed late-preseason addition only scored three times in his first 10 games with the Bucs but has tallied six TDs in his last six contests, including a score (two rushing, one receiving) in each of the team’s three playoff games so far.

With Ronald Jones’ late-season injury issues, Fournette has assumed the lead role in the Bucs’ backfield and has totaled a team-leading 62 touches this postseason (for 313 total yards) with at least 17 in each game.

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Darrel Williams (+1600)

With rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire and veteran Le’Veon Bell each playing in one playoff game so far due to injuries, Williams has stepped in productively as the Chiefs’ lead running back with 155 total yards and a TD on 31 touches this postseason.

Williams could see a lead workload once again on Super Sunday as CEH was ineffective (7 yards on seven touches) in the AFC title game coming off a high-ankle sprain. Bell is no sure bet to even be active Sunday as he deals with a knee issue.

So, in other words, we could have a second-straight Super Bowl with an unheralded K.C. back with the last name of Williams productively sliding under the radar while the opposing defense focuses its attention on the Chiefs’ top offensive weapons.

Cameron Brate (+3000)

Best Super Bowl Prop Bets Picks

Fellow Bucs tight end Rob Gronkowski has much better odds (+1800) to score the first TD, but it’s been Brate who has had the far-more-productive postseason so far as the team’s third-leading pass-catcher with 11 receptions for 149 yards and a TD to Gronk’s 2-43-0 stat line on seven targets.

Brate owns the 11th-best odds (+250) to score a TD Sunday, making his +3000 odds to score the first touchdown (tied for 16th lowest) a bona fide value.

Tom Brady (+3300)

Of Brady’s 32 career rushing TDs, including four this season and seven in the postseason, surprisingly none have come in his nine previous Super Bowls.

So why not shoot for a lucrative long shot payout by banking on the GOAT to kick off his 10th Big Game by checking off one of the last few things he has yet to accomplish?

Best Super Bowl Prop Bets 2021

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Also see:

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers odds, picks and prediction

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